Sunday, January 19, 2025

Oscars Nominations Odds for 2025: Ben Zauzmer’s Math Picks

Each awards physique this month has been pressured to grapple with the identical debate: Proceed with their nominations and honors as scheduled, to offer some distraction and sense of normalcy within the face of the Los Angeles wildfires. Or delay and/or cancel their ceremonies, out of respect for many who have misplaced a lot in L.A., and to permit folks to concentrate on a path in direction of restoration.

Personally, I see deserves on either side of this debate. I went by means of the identical debate within the choice to publish these twelfth annual mathematical predictions of the Oscar nominees, or whether or not to carry off till it’s time to foretell the winners a month from now. In the end, I made a decision to observe the Academy’s lead on this – in the event that they’re rolling together with Oscar season, so will I.

The predictions that observe are based mostly on weighting the important thing inputs of awards season so far, with extra weight going to these inputs which have achieved a greater job of predicting the nominees in every class prior to now. This gives not solely a set of predicted nominees, but in addition a snapshot of the race to win every class. Final 12 months’s mannequin predicted 10/10 finest image nominees, however maybe this 12 months we’ll get to see some extra upsets. On to the mathematical predictions…


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